Past results show opposition in retreat

 

VETERAN … Margaret Mensah-Williams is the Vice-Chairperson of National Council, a Swapo regional councillor in the Khomasdal constituency in Windhoek. Mensah-Williams has been a member of the National Council since 1999.

PAST regional council election results indicate a pattern of falling support for Namibia's opposition parties and increasing electoral success for the ruling Swapo Party.

Two opposition parties – the DTA and United Democratic Front – won 24 out of Namibia's 95 constituencies in the country's first regional council election in 1992. Since then, though, opposition parties' share of regional council seats has been in decline, with the DTA, UDF and Nudo winning a combined total of only nine constituencies in the regional council election of 2010.

In 1992, Namibia's voters elected 21 DTA regional councillors. UDF regional councillors were elected in three constituencies – Khorixas and Sesfontein in the Kunene region and Brandberg (now Dâures) in Erongo.

With DTA regional councillors elected in the then Caprivi and the Kunene, Erongo, Hardap, Karas, Khomas and Omaheke regions, the DTA had majorities in the regional councils of Caprivi, Hardap and Omaheke.

A high voter turnout of 81% was recorded in the 1992 regional council election.

The DTA scored close to 28% of valid votes cast in that election. Swapo's share of the vote was close to 69%.

By the next election of regional councillors, in 1998, voter turnout had fallen to 39,9%.

Support for the DTA had also declined from 1992 to 1998. While the number of constituencies in Namibia had increased to 102, DTA regional councillors were elected in 16 constituencies in 1998. The DTA's share of valid votes cast had decreased to 24,5%.

Four UDF candidates scored victories in that regional election.

Swapo's share of regional council seats increased from 71 in 1992 to 82 after the 1998 election.

In the 2004 regional council election, support for the DTA plummeted further, to about 5,5% of the votes cast.

After the 2004 election, the DTA had lost all of the regional council seats it had previously held in Caprivi, Hardap, Karas, Khomas and Omaheke, but managed to hold on to two constituencies in Kunene (Epupa and Opuwo). The UDF increased its share of regional council seats to five in 2004 (Khorixas, Kamanjab and Sesfontein in Kunene, and Omaruru and Dâures in Erongo). In the same election, Nudo – formerly a DTA member party – won three constituencies previously held by the DTA (Aminuis and Otjinene in Omaheke, and Okakarara in Otjozondjupa), while Swanu scored a surprise win in the Otjombinde constituency in Omaheke.

Having increased to 82 in 1998, Swapo's tally of regional council seats grew further to 96 in 2004.

A voter turnout of 55% was registered in the 2004 regional election, but in the 2010 election, voter turnout was down to about 38,6%.

Nudo held on to its three regional council seats in 2010, the DTA again won in Epupa and Opuwo, and the Rally for Democracy and Progress won Windhoek East in Khomas from Swapo, but the UDF saw its number of regional councillors decrease by two, after losing Dâures and Omaruru, and Swanu lost Otjombinde to Swapo.

Last year's National Assembly election results could be a prediction of further setbacks for Namibia's opposition parties.

While opposition party candidates had scored majorities over Swapo candidates in nine constituencies in 2010, opposition parties won majorities over Swapo in only five constituencies in 2014.

These were Rehoboth Urban West in Hardap, where the United People's Movement ended up pipping Swapo to the post with a paper-thin majority of two votes, Opuwo Rural, won by the DTA, and Aminuis, Otjinene and Okakarara, where Nudo was the majority party.

Ominously for the UDF, it did not score a majority in any constituency last year.

In four constituencies where Swapo was the majority party in last year's National Assembly election, opposition parties' combined tally of votes was higher than the number of votes cast for Swapo, though. Those constituencies were Dâures, Epupa, Sesfontein, and Katutura Central in Khomas.

That was also a retreat for opposition parties from the situation in the 2010 election, when those parties collectively won more than half of the votes cast in 11 constituencies in which Swapo was the majority party.

No opposition party has ever won a constituency in the former Kavango region, Ohangwena, Oshana, Oshikoto, and Omusati.

Following the election, each of Namibia's 14 regional councils will be choosing three of its members to become members of the National Council, which has been dominated by Swapo since 1992.